Fueled by robust backing from Black voters, women, and younger voters, Democrat Mikie Sherrill triumphed over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest. Her win guarantees Democrats a third consecutive term in the governor’s mansion — a feat unmatched since 1961 — underscoring the state’s persistent Democratic lean, notwithstanding recent Republican advances.
Initial findings from the Fox News Voter Poll, which surveyed over 4,400 registered New Jersey voters, indicated Sherrill’s strong performance among Black voters, voters under 30, women, and individuals with college degrees.
A notable 20-point gender gap emerged: approximately 60% of women supported Sherrill, while around 50% of men favored Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s dominance among women was consistent across age groups, with the strongest support coming from women under 30.
Despite Republican inroads among young men in recent elections, younger men in New Jersey favored the Democrat in this election.
The gender divide extended to parents: mothers overwhelmingly supported Sherrill at a nearly 2-to-1 ratio, while fathers leaned towards Ciattarelli by just over 10 points.
Sherrill’s diverse coalition was pivotal to her victory: she garnered support from over 90% of Black voters and nearly 70% of Hispanic voters.
Hispanic voters – a group Republicans have actively courted in recent years – did not provide the level of support Republicans anticipated. They ultimately favored Democrats by over 30 points. White voters as a whole favored Ciattarelli, largely driven by a 20-point disparity in support among White men. White women were closely divided between Sherrill and Ciattarelli, with a slight preference for the Democrat.
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The majority of college-educated voters backed Sherrill, while voters without a degree marginally favored Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli won the Republican stronghold of White men without a college degree by more than 40 points.
Both candidates enjoyed the support of over 90% of voters within their respective parties. Among the crucial swing group of independents, Sherrill was preferred by just over half. Additional support from 60% of self-described moderates gave her the necessary boost to win statewide.
Approximately half of New Jersey Republicans identified as MAGA, and nearly all of them supported Ciattarelli.
For 10% of voters, this was their first time voting in a gubernatorial election, and they supported Sherrill by a 2-to-1 margin.
Despite Sherrill’s background in the Navy, more than half of military households voted for Ciattarelli. Among union households, Sherrill narrowly maintained Democratic support, securing just over half.
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By a 2-to-1 margin, more voters hold a negative view of the country’s current state than a positive one. These voters overwhelmingly supported Ciattarelli.
Even without Trump on the ballot, his influence was still significant in the election. Roughly 70% of Sherrill supporters indicated their vote was a message of opposition to President Trump, while about a quarter of Ciattarelli voters said their vote was in support of the president.
Trump’s approval rating among Garden State voters is unfavorable, with more than half expressing disapproval.
Among the national parties, views of the Democratic Party are evenly split, while views of the Republican Party are generally unfavorable.
Issues of affordability clearly dominated voter concerns, with taxes being the top priority, closely followed by the economy. Voters prioritizing taxes favored Ciattarelli by more than 20 percentage points, while voters prioritizing the economy favored Sherrill by a slightly larger margin. Sherrill received the majority of support from voters who considered healthcare a top issue.
Nearly all voters indicated that property taxes were at least a minor issue where they live, and 70% considered it a major problem.
Rising electricity costs were also a significant concern, with nearly 90% of voters indicating it was a problem. Voters who identified both property taxes and electricity costs as major problems were more inclined to support Ciattarelli, while those who classified it as a minor problem supported Sherrill.
In response to these rising costs, voters understandably had a more pessimistic outlook on the state’s economy than optimistic. About 60% with a negative view voted for Ciattarelli, and 75% with a positive outlook backed Sherrill.
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Against this economic backdrop, 25% of New Jersey voters said they are falling behind financially. The majority, 60%, said they are holding steady, and only a small percentage reported they’re getting ahead. Sherrill received majority support from the quarter of voters falling behind, while voters who are holding steady split their support nearly evenly between the candidates.
Voters are divided on whether the next governor should cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement. However, regarding the administration’s current actions, over half of voters believe it’s gone too far, while about 30% say it’s about right.
Voters in the Garden State indicated that bringing needed change, sharing their values, and working for people like them were among the most important candidate qualities in deciding their vote. Voters motivated by change supported Ciattarelli, while those who prioritized value sharing and working for people like them favored Sherrill by a 2-to-1 margin.
The accusations regarding Sherrill’s Naval Academy graduation did not deter voters from supporting her, as voters who prioritized honesty favored Sherrill by more than 40 points. More voters believed she ran a mostly fair campaign compared to those who thought Ciattarelli’s campaign was mostly fair. Sherrill also benefited from a net-positive favorability rating, with over half of Garden State voters viewing her favorably. The impact of a negative campaign cycle may have hurt Ciattarelli — about half of voters felt he ran a mostly unfair campaign and have an unfavorable view of the Republican.
Amid this competitive race for governor, political corruption was a concern for many New Jersey voters, with 90% identifying it as at least a minor problem. Those who saw it as a major problem were more likely to side with Ciattarelli, while those who saw it as only a minor problem favored Sherrill.
By a 2-to-1 margin, more Sherrill voters said their vote was in support of their candidate rather than against their opponent. Ciattarelli voters were even more enthusiastic, with 80% voting in support of the Republican.
Among the late-deciding voters, Sherrill was favored by almost 70%.
Term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s job rating is unfavorable as he prepares to leave office. After over a decade of Democratic leadership, approximately 20% of Democrats disapprove of his performance as governor. Independents have mixed opinions, with roughly equal numbers approving and disapproving, and nearly all Republicans disapprove.
METHODOLOGY
The Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS with New Jersey registered voters. This survey was conducted from October 22 to November 4, 2025, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day. The poll combines data collected from registered voters online and by telephone with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts per state. In the final step, all the pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the share of voting mode (absentee, early-in-person, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the state final electorate. Once votes are counted, the survey results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state. Results among all more than 4,400 New Jersey voters interviewed have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, including the design effects. The error margin is larger among subgroups.
