The Democratic contenders for governor in New Jersey and Virginia should secure easy victories.
However, the races are proving to be more competitive than experts initially predicted. Here’s the explanation.
Mikie Sherrill, a former prosecutor and Navy officer, currently serving as a congresswoman, should decisively defeat Jack Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman who has unsuccessfully run twice before.
Having begun my career at a New Jersey newspaper, I can attest that the Garden State’s Democratic lean is stronger than ever.
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One challenge Sherrill faces is the unpopularity of the outgoing governor, Phil Murphy, as voters tend to penalize the ruling party when dissatisfied.
Additionally, the Trump factor casts a shadow over Tuesday’s races.
While Ciattarelli previously labeled Trump a “charlatan” in 2015, they have since reconciled, and the former president has endorsed him. In 2012, he opposed a bill legalizing same-sex marriage but has since reversed his stance.
Sherrill is focusing her campaign on Trump, consistently criticizing the former president, knowing Ciattarelli cannot distance himself from the Trump agenda without risking his ire.
Furthermore, Trump canceled a $16 billion tunnel project between New Jersey and New York, a move that is deeply unpopular among North Jersey commuters.
Coupled with a month-long government shutdown and the recent suspension of SNAP food benefits, Sherrill faces a challenging situation.
Despite Ciattarelli’s efforts to campaign in minority communities, victory won’t be guaranteed.
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In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, would typically be on course for a comfortable win against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the first Black woman to win a statewide race. Trump has not endorsed her.
However, Spanberger’s perceived lack of courage has negatively impacted her campaign.
The Democratic candidate for attorney general, Jay Jones, is widely seen as a disgrace. He sent a text message to a colleague expressing his desire to have “two bullets” for the then-speaker of the House of Delegates, Todd Gilbert, and wishing death upon his children.
Spanberger could have demanded his withdrawal from the race, denouncing his behavior as unacceptable. Instead, she continues to support Jay Jones, portraying her as a typical self-serving politician.
The press has largely overlooked the issue, covering it briefly before moving on. Meanwhile, Earle-Sears, a combat veteran, has dedicated a significant portion of her advertising budget to this issue, while also highlighting the controversy surrounding trans women in women’s sports.
Spanberger is campaigning against the Trump economy, emphasizing affordability issues in the commonwealth. She portrays the Trump tariffs as a “massive tax hike on Virginians.”
Virginia is not as strongly Democratic as New Jersey, but its northern suburbs, home to many federal workers affected by firings or unpaid leave during the shutdown, lean blue.
Spanberger aims to win over some Trump voters in rural areas. However, as former senator Joe Manchin told Politico, “If you have a ‘D’ by your name in rural America – grassroots, rural, religious America – they’re going to lose, no matter how they try to switch.”
Spanberger is still expected to win by a significant margin in a state won by Kamala Harris, suggesting she has weathered the storm.
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Trump, preoccupied with foreign travel and mediating conflicts, has shown little public interest in this week’s elections. He has not campaigned for anyone in person during the final stretch, as if anticipating losses in left-leaning states and wanting to distance himself from the outcome.
Barack Obama, the unofficial leader of the Democratic Party, campaigned for Spanberger and Sherrill on Saturday.
This brings us to New York City and its distinctive, diverse, and confrontational political style.
Here, Trump is playing a role by consistently denouncing Zohran Mamdani, the leading candidate for mayor, as a “communist.”
Republicans are already campaigning against Mamdani, the self-proclaimed socialist, viewing him as a gift. They are making him the face of the Democratic Party.
Andrew Cuomo, who learned politics from his father Mario, was outmaneuvered by Mamdani. The polls are narrowing, but the charismatic Mamdani is still likely to win, mainly because Republican Curtis Sliwa, the former Guardian Angel with no chance of winning, refuses to withdraw.
The controversial Cuomo is not an ideal candidate. He was forced to resign as governor four years ago following numerous sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.
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Hakeem Jeffries finally gave Mamdani a lukewarm endorsement, despite his refusal to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, because he is the expected winner. If that happens, Mamdani will struggle to fulfill his promises of free goods and services, as he will require support from Albany and other power centers.
This will be used against every Democrat running in less liberal areas than the five boroughs. The Republicans will ensure Mamdani becomes the most well-known Democrat in the country, symbolizing, fairly or unfairly, a far-left party.
Off-year elections are typically uneventful, gauging turnout when the incumbent president is not on the ballot. However, this election has more unexpected twists and turns than the L.A. Dodgers narrowly defeating the Toronto Blue Jays.
